All bets are off in Nashville mayor’s race

Nashville’s race for mayor has just taken a major turn. And seven months ahead of the August election, good luck handicapping this one.

Sure, Howard Gentry may struggle to match the fundraising of his six opponents, many of whom are equipped to self-finance much of their candidacies. But make no mistake: His unexpected entry into the contest, reported by The Tennessean last week, is a potential game-changer.

Gentry, former Metro vice mayor, current Davidson County Criminal Court clerk and the lone African-American running for mayor, brings something that had largely been lacking to the race — an actual base of supporters.

Before his arrival, only at-large Councilwoman Megan Barry, a favorite among progressives, could claim any natural base or constituency. The other five — several who are political newcomers and, remarkably, none of whom have ever run for countywide office until now — are relying on campaigning and television advertising over the coming months to introduce themselves to voters.

Gentry, on the other hand, is a known commodity, especially in North Nashville. He’s also proved his worth. Despite being outspent overwhelmingly in the 2007 mayoral race, he came up just a few hundred votes shy of making it to the September runoff that Karl Dean ultimately won.

A lot of things can happen before August, but the dynamics shape up nicely for Gentry to at least compete for the runoff again — and he surely realized this as he made his decision to jump in.

Not only do the six other candidates lack household names, but they all live in an area that — lacking a better description — we’ll generically call West Nashville. Barry resides in Belmont; Charles Robert Bone, Belle Meade; David Fox, Whitland; Bill Freeman, Forest Hills; Jeremy Kane, Sylvan Park; and Linda Eskind Rebrovick, Hillwood.

Among several candidates, strengths overlap. And if all seven stay in the race, only around 20,000 votes could be required to make it to a runoff this year — which will take place between the two top finishers if no candidate garners more than half the vote. Gentry collected 23,203 votes eight years ago.

This, of course, is a different year. Gentry won’t retain all his past support. And there are candidates this time in a better position to compete in North Nashville and other black precincts in Antioch that Gentry dominated last time.

But don’t think his opponents have taken note? An hour after The Tennessean reported Thursday that Gentry would run, the Freeman campaign issued a news release announcing the endorsement of at-large Councilman Jerry Maynard, an African-American politician with strong ties to North Nashville who will serve as senior adviser of Freeman’s campaign.

Freeman, a top Democratic Party fundraiser, had eyed North Nashville even before he officially entered in December. His other senior adviser is state Rep. Brenda Gilmore, also of North Nashville, and he’s received early help from Corinthian Missionary Baptist Church Pastor Enoch Fuzz. Gentry complicates things for Freeman.

Bone also has made a visible play at North Nashville. In November, his campaign hired Little Smith Consulting, which is credited with helping a string of recent candidates capture that part of town to help win office, including District Attorney Glenn Funk in May.

It has been written before: Gone are the days when the old East Nashville political network gave rise to mayors like Beverly Briley, Dick Fulton and Bill Boner. Nashville’s political power base — influenced more by the chamber of commerce than labor unions these days — has shifted to wealthy neighborhoods in the west. The mayoral field is largely a reflection of this, and it left a clear opening for Gentry.

Eight years ago, the city watched Dean, a former public defender and Metro law director from Green Hills, build a coalition of city boosters, business types and progressives to win the mayor’s office. He was aided enormously by $1 million in personal wealth to help him get on television earlier than his opponents. It worked as he defeated an establishment Democrat, former U.S. Rep. Bob Clement, in the runoff.

This time it seems so many candidates are trying to copy the Dean playbook. But could there be too many for their own good? We’ll see whether Gentry can capitalize.

Reach Joey Garrison and 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.