Which coaches will survive four more years in SEC?
At age 70 and after 25 seasons as a college football coach, Steve Spurrier knows it's best to steer clear of oddsmakers.
Even so, Spurrier recently invoked the name of sports handicapper Danny Sheridan as someone who might put odds on which SEC coaches would be in their current positions in July 2019.
"I wish he did the odds on every coach being here four years from now," Spurrier said at SEC Media Days. "It would be something to bet on, wouldn't it?"
For those keeping score, eight of the 14 SEC coaches were not in their current positions four years ago. It is a conference marked by high coaching salaries and outrageous expectations. If you don't produce, there's a buyout with your name on it.
As for Spurrier, his comment about Sheridan and the odds was his way of suggesting he's not even thinking about retirement, even after a 7-6 season that included four losses in five games during one painful stretch.
"The retirement thing, I don't think I'd be very good at it," he said.
In the SEC, however, coaches don't often get to make their own exit plans.
With that in mind, here is a look at where current SEC coaches stand in terms of their likelihood of still being on the job entering the 2019 season:
HUGH FREEZE, OLE MISS
Overview: After going through six coaches in an 18-year period during one stretch, the Rebels have been to three bowl games in three seasons under Freeze. Beyond that, he has endeared himself to the Ole Miss administration and fan base by embracing the program's history and tradition.
Four-year plan: All indications are Freeze will be at Ole Miss for the foreseeable future. He's making $4 million a year and has the Rebels headed in the right direction. Plus, he seems very comfortable in Oxford.
GARY PINKEL, MISSOURI
Overview: He is entering his 15th season at Missouri and is coming off back-to-back SEC East titles, which allayed any concern that the Tigers might not handle the jump from the Big 12 to the SEC. Pinkel consistently gets the best out of his roster on both sides of the football.
Four-year plan: He's not the flashiest of coaches or the hottest recruiter, but Pinkel is a great fit. He champions the "Missouri Made" approach of identifying under-the-radar prospects and developing them into productive players.
BUTCH JONES, TENNESSEE
Overview: Most Vols fans understand what a monumental rebuilding challenge Jones faced when he replaced Derek Dooley after the 2012 season. Although he has won only five SEC games in two seasons, Jones has recruited extremely well and seems to have UT poised for an uptick in 2015.
Four-year plan: At some point, Jones needs to gain upward mobility in the SEC East to confirm that his recruiting victories will translate to success on the field. This could be the year. After so much turmoil, UT will have patience with him.
BRET BIELEMA, ARKANSAS
Overview: After losing his first 13 SEC games, Bielema broke through with back-to-back wins over ranked teams LSU and Ole Miss last season and capped things with a bowl victory over Texas. His teams play with toughness, which serves them well in the brutal SEC West.
Four-year plan: Although he arrived as an SEC outsider, Bielema's personality has won over the Arkansas fan base. With his previous success at Wisconsin and his willingness to take on a new challenge, Bielema isn't going anywhere.
NICK SABAN, ALABAMA
Overview: It tells you how high Saban has set the bar that there have been some complaints about the Crimson Tide's two-year national championship drought. He continues to evolve as a coach, and his recruiting guarantees Alabama of one of the nation's most talented rosters annually.
Four-year plan: At age 63, Saban seems less and less inclined to try his hand at the NFL again. He shows no signs of slowing down. But how long does he want to deal with the pressure and scrutiny that come with coaching Alabama?
MARK RICHT, GEORGIA
Overview: The Dawgs have averaged 9.7 victories and have won or shared six SEC East titles in his 14 years as coach. In an era dominated by the spread offense, Richt has continued to champion a pro-style offense that puts up big numbers. He also sends loads of players to the NFL.
Four-year plan: It is duly noted that Richt has failed to deliver a national championship on his watch. His teams sometimes fail to perform when the stakes are stacked highest, which leads to criticism by many fans.
GUS MALZAHN, AUBURN
Overview: It's hard to believe that Malzahn was coaching high school football just 10 years ago. In two seasons, he's won 20 games and taken the Tigers to a national championship game. Offense is never a problem, and credit him for acting quickly and hiring Will Muschamp to run his defense.
Four-year plan: He's been a college head coach for only three years — one at Arkansas State and two at Auburn. At 49, you wonder whether Malzahn might be on the Chip Kelly track where an NFL owner decides to hire a coach out of college.
STEVE SPURRIER, SOUTH CAROLINA
Overview: Even with the 7-6 downturn in 2014, Spurrier has taken South Carolina football to levels not previously seen. In 2011-13, the Gamecocks won 11 games each season and were ranked in the Top 10. He remains one of the nation's top offensive minds.
Four-year plan: Spurrier already has had a taste of retirement (he was out of coaching in 2004 after a failed stint in the NFL), so that's not a major concern. But at age 70, there are only so many games left for the Head Ball Coach.
MARK STOOPS, KENTUCKY
Overview: When the Wildcats opened last season 5-1, including a triple-overtime loss to Florida, Stoops gave Kentucky fans a glimpse into just how good things can be. Then his team lost six straight. Even so, he has improved the Wildcats roster since arriving after the 2012 season.
Four-year plan: Even with the bad finish in 2014, Stoops obviously has things moving in the right direction. But Kentucky football tends to hit the reset button on coaches quite often. Since 1997, only Rich Brooks lasted more than four seasons.
JIM McELWAIN, FLORIDA
Overview: McElwain fast-tracked Colorado State from four wins in 2012 to eight in '13 and 10 last season. He has a strong resume as an offensive-minded coach and spent 2008-11 as offensive coordinator under Saban at Alabama.
Four-year plan: Saban proteges have not fared well as SEC head coaches. Dooley washed out at Tennessee, and Muschamp, McElwain's predecessor, lasted only four years. Gators Athletics Director Jeremy Foley can have an itchy trigger finger.
DAN MULLEN, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Overview: Mullen is coming off the best of his six seasons with the Bulldogs. State spent five weeks at No. 1 in 2014 before losing three of its last four games, including the Orange Bowl. Even with quarterback Dak Prescott, that's a tough act to follow.
Four-year plan: It's hard to argue with Mullen's impact on the Bulldogs program, but it's fair to wonder if he might tire of the challenges of coaching in the SEC West and look to relocate in a conference that offers an easier schedule.
LES MILES, LSU
Overview: After averaging 10.6 wins in his first nine seasons as Tigers coach, Miles' 2014 team slipped to 8-5, including a loss to Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl. With a couple of noteworthy exceptions, quarterback play has been an issue for the Tigers on Miles' watch.
Four-year plan: Yes, Miles has the 2007 national championship on his resume and he played for it again in 2011, but his inability to win at the highest level despite recruiting so much NFL-in-waiting talent has left many Tigers fans disenchanted.
KEVIN SUMLIN, TEXAS A&M
Overview: His arrival with the Aggies coincided with Texas A&M's move to the SEC in 2012, when Sumlin debuted with an 11-2 record as Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy. But the Aggies are just 7-9 in the SEC since then. Sumlin hopes the arrival of coordinator John Chavis fixes his defense.
Four-year plan: The victory total has gone down in each of Sumlin's three seasons with the Aggies — 11, 9, 8 — which is cause for concern. The $450 million renovation of Kyle Field puts extra pressure on Sumlin to win big in the near term.
DEREK MASON, VANDERBILT
Overview: Mason had a tough act to follow in James Franklin, and the Commodores' 3-9 record in 2014 left many fans wondering whether he is up to directing an SEC program. The jury is still out. Mason has taken matters into his own hands by taking over as defensive coordinator, which was a good move.
Four-year plan: While it probably was unfair to expect Mason to step in and keep the Commodores winning at the level they did under Franklin, his debut season was a huge disappointment. This looms as a crossroads season for him.
Reach David Climer at 615-259-8020 and on Twitter @DavidClimer.