Tennessee crushes early voting record for presidential primary
Tennessee has crushed the state’s presidential primary early voting record set eight years ago, with Republican primary voters this year far outpacing Democratic voters by a 2-to-1 margin.
It has state election officials bracing for a massive election day turnout on Super Tuesday next week — one that could approach numbers typically seen during November presidential general elections.
Early voting this year saw 385,653 Tennesseans cast ballots, a 17.1 percent increase over the 2008 primaries in Tennessee — the most recent open primary for both parties — in which 329,154 people voted early or absentee.
The increase this year comes with two fewer early voting days than eight years ago. And because not all absentee ballots this year have been counted, the percentage will only climb.
Early voting began on Feb. 10 and ended Tuesday ahead of the primary next week.
Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett explained the spike by pointing to the influx of campaign visits to Tennessee this year by Republican presidential candidates and heightened importance of the so-called “SEC Primary,” when primaries are set for Tennessee and six other Southern states.
“I think there are personalities in this race that may not have been what we’ve seen in previous presidential elections,” Hargett said. “And I think people are very engaged and interested.”
Tennessee’s Republican primary this year attracted 254,659 early voters, compared with 128,343 Tennesseans who voted this year in the Tennessee Democratic primary.
That’s an even greater turnout disparity among the two parties than is typically seen in politically red Tennessee.
The crowded GOP primary has been dominated by surging front-runner Donald Trump, who heads into Super Tuesday on a three-state win streak in the GOP nomination process. Tennessee is considered a three-person race between Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Trump, the presumed favorite.
Tennessee Republican Party Executive Director Brent Leatherwood boasted that early voting results are “indicative of where the two parties are right now in our state."
“Each election cycle shows fewer and fewer voters supporting (Democratic) candidates, and that is certainly the case this year,” he said. “Meanwhile, Republicans have the energy, enthusiasm and ideas that are motivating a record number of Tennesseans to come out to the polls.”
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite in Tennessee against U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who still hasn’t visited Tennessee during the campaign.
“Democrats are comfortable knowing that we have two qualified and serious candidates for president,” Tennessee Democratic Party chairwoman Mary Mancini said of early voting results. “Republicans are in a panic, scrambling to figure out who will cause the least amount of damage to their party as they head to their inevitable 2016 defeat.”
In 2012, when President Barack Obama ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, 204,945 Tennesseans voted early overall among both parties.
This year, 85 of Tennessee’s 95 counties have seen early voting totals increase from 2012, while 53 counties have increased from 2008.
In Davidson County, which includes Nashville, 44,395 people voted early, a sizable 35 percent increase from 2008, when 32,897 people voted early. Early voting this year in the Republican primary in Nashville more than doubled from 2008.
Historically, early voting in Tennessee’s presidential primaries accounts for 25-30 percent of the overall vote total. If that happens again this year, then around 900,000 Tennesseans could vote on March 1. That would bring the overall voter turnout to between 1.1 million and 1.3 million.
November presidential elections typically see around half of the electorate vote early. But because voters typically wait longer to decide who to support during primaries, the share of early voters is usually smaller, shifting a greater share of the vote to election day.
Election officials are advising Tennessee to expect longer lines than they might be accustomed to — especially because of an unusually long Republican ballot that features 432 presidential delegate candidates.
“We’re looking at a situation where we may be very close to a November presidential election as far as turnout on election day,” said Mark Goins, state coordinator of elections.
But he noted that November ballots are much shorter than the ballot Republican voters will see on March 1.
Said Hargett, “It could be a long day, frankly, on Tuesday, and it’s going to be a long ballot.”
Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.
2016 early/absentee vote totals statewide
- Overall voters: 385,653
- Republican primary voters: 254,659
- Democratic primary voters: 128,343
2008 early/absentee vote totals statewide
- Overall voters: 329,154
- Republican primary voters: N/A
- Democratic primary voters: N/A
2016 Nashville early vote totals
- Overall voters: 44,395
- Republican primary voters: 18,226
- Democratic primary voters: 26,169
2008 Nashville early vote totals
- Overall voters: 32,897
- Republican primary voters: 8,565
- Democratic primary voters: 24,329