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Vols schedule analysis: SEC East crown within reach?

Dave Ammenheuser and Matt Slovin
The Tennessean

The spring game is over. Summer lies ahead.

It's never too early to peek at the upcoming college football season, however. Here's a look at Tennessee's schedule.

SEPT. 5 vs. BOWLING GREEN AT LP FIELD

Slovin analysis: With the increased emphasis Tennessee has placed on the Midstate, from both a recruiting and a marketing standpoint, it's fitting that the Vols will open their 2015 season in Nashville. After an offseason's worth of hype surrounding the Tennessee program, with many expecting the Vols to contend for the SEC East crown, the opener will be a chance to make a statement against a team that finished above .500 last year.

Ammenheuser data: First meeting. Coming off an 8-6 season, coach Dino Babers' team advanced to the MAC championship game where it lost 51-17 to Northern Illinois. The Falcons then beat South Alabama, 33-28, in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl. After opening against the Vols, the Falcons visit Maryland the following week.

SEPT. 12 vs. OKLAHOMA

Slovin analysis: After a rather embarrassing loss to the Sooners in Norman, Okla., last season, you can bet that the Vols will be dying for some revenge here. If Tennessee takes care of business against Bowling Green in Week 1 and knocks off what should be another a very strong Oklahoma team in the home opener, the nation will start paying very close attention to what's going on in Knoxville.

Ammenheuser data: Oklahoma leads the series 2-1, including the 34-10 win in Norman last season when the Sooners went 8-5 overall. Bob Stoops is in his 17th season with the Sooners. He has a 160-39 record, including a 99-24 mark in the Big 12. He's won eight conference titles along with the 2000 national title. The Sooners open the season at home against Akron before visiting the Vols.

SEPT. 19 vs. WESTERN CAROLINA

Slovin analysis: Tennessee's only FCS foe in 2015 should give the Vols something of a break following likely an extremely physical game against the Sooners. Sandwiched between Oklahoma and Florida, it's possible Tennessee's focus might be elsewhere, but even a distracted Vols team should be more than enough to take care of Western Carolina, which lost 48-14 against Alabama in 2014.

Ammenheuser data: First meeting. This is the third game of the season for the Catamounts, who open vs. Mars Hill then play at The Citadel. They were 7-5 last season, including 5-2 in the Southern Conference. Coach Mark Speir is in his fourth year.

SEPT. 26 at FLORIDA

Slovin analysis: After blowing a seemingly insurmountable 9-0 second-half lead in a defensive struggle against the Gators last year, Tennessee will travel to Florida for a game that could easily make or break the season. The Gators have won the last 10 meetings. At this point, Tennessee's losing streak against one of its rivals seems like a mental thing. Can the Vols get over the hump finally?

Ammenheuser data: Florida leads the series 25-19, including the 10-9 win in Gainesville last season. Jim McElwain is in his first season as coach of the Gators, coming to Florida after three seasons at Colorado State. He was Alabama offensive coordinator from 2008-11. The Gators have won the last 10 meetings, with Tennessee's most recent victory happening in 2004 (30-28).

OCT. 3 vs. ARKANSAS

Slovin analysis: If the Vols are as good as many expect, this one should be a classic. Arkansas is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. The result of this game could be the difference between Tennessee going, say, 9-3 and contending for the division title, or going 8-4 and losing some steam early in the race.

Ammenheuser data: The Vols lead the series 13-4, but they haven't played Arkansas since 2011 when Arkansas claimed a 49-7 win in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are coming off a 7-6 season, including a 31-7 beating of Texas in the Texas Bowl. Bret Bielema, formerly the head coach of Wisconsin, is in his third season as coach of the Razorbacks.

OCT. 10 vs. GEORGIA

Slovin analysis: An SEC East championship might very well run through the Bulldogs this season. This is another revenge game for the Vols; what could've been a season-defining victory last season turned into a narrow, painful loss. Beating Georgia in Knoxville would very likely put Tennessee in the driver's seat in the division race. Some of the best running backs in the conference will be on display between the Vols' Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara and the Bulldogs' Nick Chubb.

Ammenheuser data: The series is 21-21-2. The Bulldogs have won five in a row, including a 35-32 win in Athens last season. Coach Mark Richt begins his 15th season at Georgia, where he has a 136-48 record, including 78-34 in the SEC (including five SEC championship game appearances). The Bulldogs play the Vols a week after hosting Alabama.

OCT. 24 at ALABAMA

Slovin analysis: Tennessee can thank its lucky stars the schedule makers granted it an idle week before the dreaded trip to Tuscaloosa. This will be the toughest game on the Vols' schedule. Even in a season with high expectations, there won't be many picking them to knock off the Crimson Tide, who should be very much in the conversation to return to the College Football Playoff.

Ammenheuser data: Alabama leads series 52-38-7, including a 34-20 win in Knoxville last season. Nick Saban's team travels to College Station to play Texas A&M the week before this game. Saban has a 91-17 record in 108 games with the Tide. After winning back-to-back BCS titles, Saban's teams have lost back-to-back Sugar Bowls.

OCT. 31 at KENTUCKY

Slovin analysis: It's not out of the question that the Vols will enter this one riding a two-, three- or even four-game losing streak. If that is indeed the case, Kentucky will likely be the unfortunate recipient of some pent-up frustration on the part of Tennessee. This one could get ugly, folks.

Ammenheuser data: The Vols lead the series 77-24-9, including a 50-16 win at Neyland Stadium last season. The Wildcats lost their final six games last season after a 5-1 start. The Wildcats travel to Mississippi State the week before hosting the Vols. Coach Mark Stoops is 7-17 in two seasons at Kentucky. Previously he was defensive coordinator at Arizona and Florida State.

NOV. 7 vs. SOUTH CAROLINA

Slovin analysis: Remember Tennessee's stunning come-from-behind victory in Columbia last season? Yeah, Steve Spurrier does, too. The Gamecocks are looking for a new quarterback, and it remains to be seen just how far of a leap forward they'll take in 2015 — if they take one at all. This could be the one that gets the Vols bowl eligible.

Ammenheuser data: The Vols lead the series 24-7-2, including a 45-42 overtime win last season. The Gamecocks were just 7-6 last season, including a 24-21 win over Miami in the Independence Bowl. Coach Steve Spurrier has an 84-45 record, including four straight bowl wins, in 10 seasons at South Carolina.

NOV. 14 vs. NORTH TEXAS

Slovin analysis: Ah, everyone's favorite week of the season — when a Conference USA opponent is thrown right into the schedule to break up the gauntlet that is SEC play. This will be Homecoming in Knoxville, and spirits should be high even before the game begins. By halftime, they'll be even higher, and many fans will likely have seen enough to leave Neyland Stadium early, feeling confident of victory.

Ammenheuser data: North Texas won the only previous meeting, 21-14 in 1975 when Sears Woods scored three touchdowns including a game-clinching 95-yard kick return. Dan McCarney has coached the Mean Green since 2011. North Texas was 4-8 last season, including a 2-6 record in Conference USA.

NOV. 21 at MISSOURI

Slovin analysis: It's not impossible to think this game could decide the SEC East, though Georgia will almost certainly have something to say about that. Maty Mauk returns at quarterback for the Tigers, who have won the division two straight years. Tennessee should be hot coming into this one, though.

Ammenheuser data: Missouri has won the only three meetings, including a 29-21 victory in Knoxville last season. The first meeting was Missouri's four-overtime, 51-48 triumph in 2012. Coach Gary Pinkel's team was 11-3 last season, losing to Alabama in the SEC title game and beating Minnesota 33-17 in the Citrus Bowl.

NOV. 28 vs. VANDERBILT

Slovin analysis: The Vols finally righted the ship against their in-state rivals last season. Tennessee fans will vividly recall the pain of losing to Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium in 2013 — only the second time that had happened since 1975. Like the team itself, they will be eager to remind the Commodores that wins in Knoxville don't come easily — and this year, likely not at all.

Ammenheuser data: The Vols lead the series 74-30-5, including a 24-17 win in Nashville last season. Derek Mason posted a 3-9 record in his first season as Vanderbilt's coach. The Commodores have not won an SEC game since beating Tennessee 14-10 in Knoxville in 2013.