Vanderbilt schedule analysis: Room to improve
The spring game is over. Summer lies ahead.
It's never too early to peek at the upcoming college football season, however. Here's a look at Vanderbilt's schedule:
SEPT. 5 vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Sparks analysis: There won't be many season openers around the country that could steer a fan base as much as this one. The lightning-delayed, seven-turnover, 37-7 loss to Temple in last year's opener instantly put skepticism around the Derek Mason era. Another opening loss to a beatable opponent could turn the season sour before it barely begins. WKU quarterback Brandon Doughty, the nation's top passer last season (4,830 yards, 49 TDs), returns to lead an offense that made high-scoring shootouts a habit in 2014. Vanderbilt will either need to take control of the pace or slow down Doughty with a secondary now under Mason's control as defensive play-caller.
Ammenheuser data: These programs have not met since 1938, but Vanderbilt holds a 3-0 edge in the series. This is the first of three meetings (2016 at Bowling Green and 2017 back in Nashville). Coach Jeff Brohm's Hilltoppers are coming off an 8-5 season, including a 49-48 win over Central Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl.
SEPT. 12 vs. GEORGIA
Sparks analysis: Vanderbilt has only beaten Georgia five times in the past 51 years, although the Bulldogs' last trip to Nashville was a loss in 2013. Like the Commodores, the Bulldogs will be searching for their starting quarterback. New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer could use this game to test his new QB's passing skills, or he may simply hand the ball to Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Chubb, who rushed for 1,547 yards filling in for Todd Gurley last season. Vanderbilt will try to bottle up the ground game and jump out to an early lead, neither of which it did in a loss to the Bulldogs a year ago.
Ammenheuser data: Georgia leads the series 55-19-2, including a 44-17 win in Athens last season. Coach Mark Richt begins his 15th season at Georgia, where he has a 136-48 record, including 78-34 in the SEC. The Bulldogs open against Louisiana-Monroe.
SEPT. 19 vs. AUSTIN PEAY
Sparks analysis: This should be the gimme of the early games and perhaps a confidence builder. In Mason's first season, the Commodores never had a winning record. If they beat Western Kentucky and Austin Peay, Vanderbilt will be 2-1 heading back into SEC play. The Commodores are 13-0-1 all-time vs. OVC teams, including a 38-3 win over Austin Peay in 2013, and this should extend that unbeaten streak. Vanderbilt wants to run the ball with power on offense and force turnovers on defense. Both should be available in this one.
Ammenheuser data: This is only the second meeting. Coach Kirby Cannon is 1-23 in his first two seasons with the Governors, who have not won more than three games in a season since 2009.
SEPT. 26 at OLE MISS
Sparks analysis: Even though quarterback Bo Wallace is not back, Ole Miss returns nine starters on offense. And more importantly, the Rebels get back seven starters from the nation's No. 1 scoring defense. That means Vanderbilt must face a team similar in skill to the one that beat it 41-3 last season. By this point, Ole Miss should have its starting quarterback figured out. The Commodores hope to have the same certainty under center.
Ammenheuser data: Ole Miss leads the series, 49-38-2, including a 41-3 win in Nashville in 2014. Coach Hugh Freeze's Rebels are coming off a 9-4 season — they won their first seven before losing four of their final six, including a 42-3 defeat to TCU in the Peach Bowl.
OCT. 3 at MTSU
Sparks analysis: It's a record Vanderbilt fans would love to leave in the past, but the Commodores are 0-3 against mid-major MTSU since the Blue Raiders jumped to FBS in 1999. The last meeting was 10 years ago, but MTSU has held bragging rights since then. It will be Vanderbilt's first trip to Murfreesboro since 1920, and the Blue Raiders are tabbing the game as homecoming. From a preseason perspective, this is a toss-up, similar to the opener against Western Kentucky. Mason can't afford to lose either game to regional mid-major teams and still keep confidence high.
Ammenheuser data: This is the first meeting since 2005 when the Blue Raiders won 17-15. Vanderbilt holds a 12-3 edge in the series. This is also the first of a four-game series. Coach Rick Stockstill's team is coming off a 6-6 season.
OCT. 17 at SOUTH CAROLINA
Sparks analysis: Lost in Darrius Sims' two kick-return touchdowns against South Carolina last season was Vanderbilt's most productive offensive outing against an SEC defense. The Commodores had 379 yards, including Ralph Webb's 97 rushing yards and Wade Freebeck's 168 passing yards in a relief role. Could those two team up again in this go-round against the Gamecocks? South Carolina had a terrible pass rush and suspect pass defense last season. If that holds true (and Sims finds a little magic again), this is probably Vanderbilt's best chance for an SEC win in the first half of the schedule.
Ammenheuser data: South Carolina leads the series 20-4, with wins in the past six meetings. The Commodores have won only once in Columbia since 1999. The Gamecocks were just 7-6 last season, however, including a 24-21 win over Miami in the Independence Bowl. Coach Steve Spurrier has an 84-45 record, including four straight bowl wins, in 10 seasons at South Carolina.
OCT. 24 vs. MISSOURI
Sparks analysis: If not for a couple of critical scrambles by quarterback Maty Mauk, Vanderbilt was in reach of an upset at Missouri last October. Instead it lost 24-14, and Commodores quarterback Johnny McCrary played well on the road. Rest assured, containing Mauk will again be the No. 1 priority for Vanderbilt's defense. Missouri will have a new defensive coordinator, and much of its potent pass rush left for the NFL. Those losses might mean the Tigers don't pull off a three-peat as the East champion, but is it enough for Vanderbilt to get a big midseason win? It will be the Commodores' only home game in nearly a two-month stretch.
Ammenheuser data: Missouri leads the series 4-2-1. Coach Gary Pinkel's team was 11-3 last season, losing to Alabama 42-13 in the SEC championship game and beating Minnesota 33-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
OCT. 31 at HOUSTON
Sparks analysis: First-year Houston coach Tom Herman should have his offense clicking by this point. As offensive coordinator at Ohio State, he won the 2014 Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. He inherits a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Greg Ward Jr. After facing Mauk a week earlier, Vanderbilt should be prepared to play a mobile signal-caller. Houston went 8-5 last year and should pose a challenge similar to non-conference foes Western Kentucky and MTSU. It's another game the Commodores must win to show progress from last season.
Ammenheuser data: This is the first regular season meeting. The Commodores beat the Cougars 41-14 in the 2014 BBVA Compass Bowl, the final game in former coach James Franklin's tenure. Vanderbilt and Houston will meet again in Nashville in 2021.
NOV. 7 at FLORIDA
Sparks analysis: The Gators still have some pieces left from one of the nation's top turnover-forcing defenses. Vanderbilt knows that well, as it committed four costly turnovers in a 34-10 loss to Florida last season. New coach Jim McElwain needs to get the offense to the level that he previously pushed Alabama as offensive coordinator — then the Gators could be competitive in the SEC East.
Ammenheuser data: Florida leads the series 36-10-2. Vanderbilt's lone win since 1988 was in 2013 in Gainesville. McElwain, who comes to Florida after three seasons as Colorado State head coach, was Alabama offensive coordinator from 2008-11.
NOV. 14 vs. KENTUCKY
Sparks analysis: Vanderbilt's second home game in nearly two months should be winnable, if it shows progress from last year. But to do that, the Commodores must have consistent quarterback play, an offensive identity and an improved defense by this point. Kentucky was one win shy of a bowl berth last season, and it will count this game as a victory in chasing a postseason bid. Vanderbilt would like to still be mathematically in bowl contention when the Wildcats come to West End.
Ammenheuser data: Kentucky leads the series 42-41-4, including a 17-7 win in Lexington last season. That victory snapped a three-game Vanderbilt winning streak against the Wildcats. Coach Mark Stoops is 7-17 in two seasons at Kentucky after defensive coordinator stints at Arizona and Florida State.
NOV. 21 vs. TEXAS A&M
Sparks analysis: Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin has made a habit of putting together explosive offenses. The question is if the hiring of former Tennessee and LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis can get the defense on track. This is Vanderbilt's last home game. After posting a 3-4 record at home a year ago, the Commodores could use a winning record in Nashville.
Ammenheuser data: This is just the second meeting. Led by Johnny Manziel, the Aggies beat the Commodores 56-24 in 2013 in College Station. The Aggies were 8-5 last season, including a 45-37 win over West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl.
NOV. 28 at TENNESSEE
Sparks analysis: Last season, this game got Mason thinking that maybe he needed to call his own defensive plays. He took over the defense in a 24-17 loss, holding the Vols to 262 yards and picking off two Josh Dobbs passes. Many think this is the year that UT takes a jump back into the upper-echelon of the East Division, especially if Dobbs and running back Jalen Hurd can produce. But if recent history is any indication, this rivalry game will likely be close. Three of the past four meetings were decided by a touchdown or less.
Ammenheuser data: Tennessee leads the series 74-30-5. Mason was 3-9 in his first season as Vanderbilt's coach, and the Commodores have not won an SEC game since beating the Vols 14-10 in Knoxville in 2013. Butch Jones is 12-13 in two seasons as Tennessee coach, including 7-6 in 2014.