Mayor Barry touts job creation from transit proposal, claiming billions in economic impact

Nashville Mayor Megan Barry is widening her pitch for a $5.4 billion transit system, claiming Tuesday that the most expensive project ever proposed for Metro would result in billions in economic impact through job creation.

But critics of the plan dispute the numbers and say there are better answers if the goal is to create jobs.

A new project breakdown, dubbed the Transit Improvement Program by the mayor's office, forecasts $3.1 billion in local-labor income through construction jobs required to build the system. The projection accounts for 28 miles of light rail and 25 miles of rapid and enhanced bus service proposed in the plan.

Another $548 million in local-labor income would be added by maintaining the system, the same report claims.

► More:Mayor Barry files bill for May transit referendum, begins with backing from a council majority

► More:Nashville bus ridership on the decline as Barry pushes $5.4 billion transit plan

Combining manpower needed for both construction and year-year-year operations, the report forecasts some 3,850 annual jobs would be created by the new transit system, fueling $4.7 billion in gross regional product for the city's economy.

Barry wants voters on May 1 to approve raising four taxes, including a new half-cent surcharge on sales tax that would spike to 1 cent in 2023, to fund her much-debated mass transit project, which also includes improvements to the city's bus system.

Barry promises 'good-paying jobs' from transit plan

Since unveiling her plan on Oct. 17, Barry has pointed to Nashville's rising traffic congestion as the main reason for voters to get behind the transit plan. But she added a new argument — jobs — at an news conference Tuesday joined by representatives of labor and other transit boosters.

"Nashville currently has the lowest unemployment rate of the top 50 metro areas in the United States," Barry said, "but not all of those jobs are really good jobs. Some pay minimum wage and can't sustain an individual, let alone a family in today's world."

Barry said employment tied to the transit system would be "good-paying jobs" and vowed that minority-owned and women-owned companies would be able to compete for them.

"Maybe we can call this plan, 'Let's Work Nashville,'" she said, playing off the actual name of her transit plan, "Let's Move Nashville."

Transit opponent disputes job projects

The Transit Improvement Program, which is required by the state IMPROVE Act, is attached to a recently filed Metro Council ordinance that seeks to add her transit funding plan to the May 1 local primary ballot via referendum. The study also fleshes out additional information about Barry's plan, including a corridor-by-corridor analysis that provides ridership projections and offers employment data. 

The report, paid for by Metro, was performed by the Nashville-based environmental consulting group Wilmot Inc.

Barry said Metro needs to create job training programs and workforce pipeline plans to ensure Nashvillians will benefit from employment opportunities if her transit plan is approved. 

But in a statement, the free market think-tank Beacon Center of Tennessee, which opposes the mayor's plan, said the job figures are overstated and misguided.

"Like most government studies, the job numbers projected seem to be overstated and unable to ever be proven true or false," Beacon CEO Justin Owen said. "Is this a transit plan or a jobs plan? If it's a jobs plan, $5.4 billion would be the most ever spent on a single corporate welfare project in Tennessee history.

"There are far better ways to create jobs than to build an antiquated train system down our busiest roads and that won't even alleviate traffic congestion."

Study projects major transit ridership spike 

The study also projects massive ridership numbers if the transit system is built.

For two and a half years, MTA bus ridership has been on the decline in Nashville. But the study says that the system would attract between 35 million and 40 million annual transit riders system-wide a year. The mayor's office says projected weekday ridership numbers, some 2,230 people per mile of light rail by 2040, would be comparable with cities such as Denver and Seattle.

"It's because we're failing our transit network and haven't given it the tools that they need to succeed," Barry said of the ongoing bus ridership dip, arguing that transit ridership will improve with more options.

"People need more options to get around," she said. "When transit service is fast, reliable, convenient and affordable, people will choose it over driving. Today, it's hard to meet those promises because we don't have a system."

Owen, of the Beacon Center, slammed the projected ridership figures as well, saying, "Government-funded studies of politicians' pet projects usually portray an unrealistically rosy picture.

"We’ve seen this before with the Music City Star," referring to the commuter rail connecting Davidson and Wilson counties. "In 2006, it was estimated that the Music City Star would have 1,500 riders daily. In over 10 years, it has yet to hit that mark even once."

He added that the transit proposal would take only a minimal number of drivers off highways according to the mayor's own report: "This plan continues to look worse and worse — and cost more and more — as details are released," he said.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.