How Vanderbilt basketball can still make NCAA tournament with these 12 wins

Vanderbilt basketball’s chance at an NCAA tournament bid already may have drifted away. But let’s say it hasn’t.

The Commodores enter their SEC schedule at Florida Saturday (3 p.m., ESPN2) with a 5-7 record, an RPI of 176 and dwindling hopes of the postseason. But perhaps there is a path — albeit a narrow one — to the Big Dance.

Vanderbilt earned an NCAA tournament at-large bid last season with the nation’s No. 1 strength of schedule and a 17-14 regular-season record. It must go 12-7 the remainder of this season to post the same record.

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Its schedule is not as strong, but it’s not weak either. And several opportunities lie ahead for quality wins in a strong SEC field.

So before Vanderbilt is mathematically eliminated, let’s suspend disbelief for a moment and look at 12 games Vanderbilt could win for at least a shot at the NCAA tournament bubble:

At Florida (Saturday)

Why not start the rally immediately? Florida big man John Egbunu is still out with a knee injury, so Vanderbilt’s small lineup could be effective. And the Commodores have won three in a row against the Gators.

Alabama (Tuesday)

It’s the SEC home opener. If Vanderbilt can keep up its recent hot 3-point shooting in Memorial Gym, it could start 2018 with its first top-30 win.

Tennessee or Kentucky (Jan. 9, 13)

A rivalry can equalize any matchup, even against the red-hot Vols. Kentucky is talented, but still a work in progress. A split in this two-game homestand could spark a surge.

LSU (Jan. 20)

By the numbers, this is Vanderbilt’s best chance for a home win the rest of the season. The 8-3 Tigers have improved from last season’s 10-21 record, but they have an RPI of 158 because of a soft schedule.

TCU (Jan. 27)

This is perhaps the biggest stretch of these what-if wins. TCU is 12-0 with a top-10 RPI. But this is also a home game in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge between unfamiliar opponents that haven’t played in 14 years. Leave this one to Memorial Magic.

At Auburn (Feb. 3)

If Auburn, currently riding a nine-game win streak, does not cool off, the Commodores don’t have a prayer. But if it does slow down and continues to struggle defending the 3-point line, perhaps Vanderbilt’s shooters can get in a groove.

Georgia (Feb. 7)

The Bulldogs are 6-0 at home, but this game is in Nashville. Vanderbilt has gone 8-1 over its last nine games against Georgia in Memorial Gym.

Mississippi State (Feb. 14)

As in most of these hypothetical victories, Vanderbilt must recapture its home swagger for a late-season run. Plus, the Commodores beat the Bulldogs 77-48 last season. Has there been that much change in less than a year?

At LSU (Feb. 20)

KenPom.com, a college basketball advanced analysis website, gives Vanderbilt a 41 percent chance of winning this game, its best shot of any road contest. That’s close enough to count it as a win here.

Texas A&M (Feb. 24)

Vanderbilt could never compete with the Aggies’ big men, so maybe history helps here. Vanderbilt has an 8-2 all-time record against Texas A&M, including three straight wins, for its best winning percentage against any SEC foe.

Missouri (Feb. 27)

KenPom.com gives Vanderbilt a 55 percent chance of winning this one and picks the Commodores to go 7-11 in SEC play. To get to the NCAA tournament bubble, Vanderbilt, at least, would need to reverse that record to 11-7.

At Ole Miss (March 3)

The Rebels have the worst RPI in the SEC, even worse than Vanderbilt. Ole Miss lost at MTSU 77-58. Vanderbilt lost at home to MTSU 66-63. Whichever team improves the most in SEC play wins this one.

Reach Adam Sparks at asparks@tennessean.com and on Twitter @AdamSparks.

NEXT GAME

VANDERBILT (5-7) AT FLORIDA (8-4)

When: 3 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: ESPN2/1510 AM, 98.3 FM